When will Philippines overtake Japan in population?

Philippines is projected to overtake Japan in total population around 2030. At the crossover, both countries sit at roughly 120 million people. Today Japan is still larger, but the trend lines are converging and the order is set to flip within a generation.

The reason is a tale of two trajectories. Philippines is projected to stay broadly flat over the century, moving from about 115 million in 2024 toward 115 million by 2100. Japan, by contrast, is projected to fall sharply, going from roughly 124 million to 77.0 million over the same period. Differences in fertility and age structure (Philippines's median age near 26 versus Japan's near 49 today) explain much of the divergence.

Crossovers like this one are how the global population ranking is quietly rewritten. As faster-growing populations climb the table and slower-growing or shrinking ones slip down, the list of the world's largest countries in 2100 will look markedly different from today's. The 2030 crossing is one of the clearer signals of that shift.

As with all long-range projections, the exact year carries uncertainty. Under the UN's high and low fertility scenarios the crossover could arrive earlier or later, and the figures here follow the medium variant. Still, the direction of travel, Philippines rising relative to Japan, is robust across the plausible range of outcomes.