When will Egypt overtake Russia in population?

Egypt is projected to overtake Russia in total population around 2038. At the crossover, both countries sit at roughly 140 million people. Today Russia is still larger, but the trend lines are converging and the order is set to flip within a generation.

The reason is a tale of two trajectories. Egypt is set to grow strongly over the century, moving from about 116 million in 2024 toward 202 million by 2100. Russia, by contrast, is projected to shrink, going from roughly 145 million to 126 million over the same period. Differences in fertility and age structure (Egypt's median age near 24 versus Russia's near 40 today) explain much of the divergence.

Crossovers like this one are how the global population ranking is quietly rewritten. As faster-growing populations climb the table and slower-growing or shrinking ones slip down, the list of the world's largest countries in 2100 will look markedly different from today's. The 2038 crossing is one of the clearer signals of that shift.

As with all long-range projections, the exact year carries uncertainty. Under the UN's high and low fertility scenarios the crossover could arrive earlier or later, and the figures here follow the medium variant. Still, the direction of travel, Egypt rising relative to Russia, is robust across the plausible range of outcomes.