When will world population peak?

Global population is projected to peak around 2084 at roughly 10.29 billion people, and then begin a slow decline for the first time in modern history. This is one of the most consequential turning points in the UN's projections: the end of centuries of continuous growth.

The peak is the product of falling fertility almost everywhere. As more countries drop below the replacement level of about 2.1 births per woman, the global total stops rising even as life expectancy continues to improve and the population grows older.

These projections come from the United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, the most widely used source for long-range demographic estimates. They are scenarios, not predictions. But the broad shape of the century ahead, a slowdown and eventual peak, is consistent across the main variants.