Shrinking populations
Countries whose populations are projected to fall the most by 2100, led by parts of East Asia and Eastern Europe.
Population decline is no longer rare. The countries below are projected to lose the largest share of their people by 2100, led by parts of East Asia and Eastern Europe where low fertility and aging have combined for decades. Hong Kong tops the list.
Decline brings its own challenges: shrinking workforces, aging societies and pressure on pension systems. The table is sortable by year.
| # | Country | 2024 | 2050 | 2100 ▾ | '24–'100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | 1,420,908,919 | 1,265,452,312 | 638,684,810 | -55% |
| 2 | Japan | 124,071,179 | 105,458,719 | 77,038,488 | -38% |
| 3 | Thailand | 71,689,208 | 66,577,960 | 45,725,632 | -36% |
| 4 | Italy | 59,435,141 | 52,085,960 | 35,496,387 | -40% |
| 5 | South Korea | 51,738,086 | 45,373,929 | 22,006,983 | -57% |
| 6 | Poland | 38,711,738 | 32,939,440 | 19,430,415 | -50% |
| 7 | Ukraine | 37,441,260 | 32,165,338 | 15,322,504 | -59% |
| 8 | Romania | 19,067,838 | 16,086,598 | 10,810,476 | -43% |
| 9 | Taiwan | 23,264,288 | 19,535,308 | 10,077,143 | -57% |
| 10 | Greece | 10,136,521 | 8,838,461 | 6,296,238 | -38% |
| 11 | Cuba | 11,000,593 | 9,423,308 | 5,607,326 | -49% |
| 12 | Belarus | 9,085,898 | 7,485,739 | 4,376,126 | -52% |
| 13 | Serbia | 6,758,334 | 5,554,308 | 3,715,911 | -45% |
| 14 | Bulgaria | 6,778,222 | 5,426,371 | 3,544,133 | -48% |
| 15 | Slovakia | 5,519,573 | 4,949,954 | 3,438,506 | -38% |
| 16 | Croatia | 3,889,335 | 3,247,185 | 2,150,256 | -45% |
| 17 | Hong Kong | 7,433,078 | 6,130,903 | 2,106,152 | -72% |
| 18 | Armenia | 2,984,438 | 2,503,559 | 1,698,238 | -43% |
| 19 | Moldova | 3,053,416 | 2,361,942 | 1,494,588 | -51% |
| 20 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3,175,680 | 2,469,311 | 1,373,609 | -57% |
| 21 | Lithuania | 2,866,813 | 2,270,467 | 1,216,525 | -58% |
| 22 | Albania | 2,801,661 | 2,251,369 | 1,192,748 | -57% |
| 23 | Kosovo | 1,690,921 | 1,646,613 | 1,101,083 | -35% |
| 24 | Jamaica | 2,839,822 | 2,467,334 | 1,076,182 | -62% |
| 25 | Puerto Rico | 3,244,033 | 2,522,118 | 1,006,866 | -69% |
| 26 | Latvia | 1,879,693 | 1,520,223 | 930,123 | -51% |
| 27 | Trinidad and Tobago | 1,505,755 | 1,404,040 | 902,506 | -40% |
| 28 | North Macedonia | 1,827,512 | 1,519,251 | 868,383 | -52% |
| 29 | Estonia | 1,367,226 | 1,177,624 | 828,296 | -39% |
| 30 | Mauritius | 1,272,517 | 1,112,142 | 585,848 | -54% |
| 31 | Macao | 718,867 | 670,881 | 333,492 | -54% |
| 32 | Montenegro | 639,435 | 535,419 | 327,878 | -49% |
| 33 | Guadeloupe | 375,756 | 327,594 | 245,112 | -35% |
| 34 | Martinique | 344,576 | 283,402 | 210,252 | -39% |
| 35 | Curaçao | 185,460 | 173,895 | 120,993 | -35% |
| 36 | Saint Lucia | 179,523 | 172,546 | 108,726 | -39% |
| 37 | Grenada | 117,155 | 113,454 | 74,269 | -37% |
| 38 | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 100,966 | 89,161 | 64,457 | -36% |
| 39 | Andorra | 81,418 | 82,414 | 47,504 | -42% |
| 40 | Bermuda | 64,672 | 57,184 | 35,827 | -45% |
| 41 | Saint Kitts and Nevis | 46,803 | 44,373 | 30,353 | -35% |
| 42 | Marshall Islands | 38,182 | 25,244 | 23,854 | -38% |
| 43 | Palau | 17,707 | 15,573 | 11,160 | -37% |
| 44 | Anguilla | 14,523 | 14,592 | 9,369 | -35% |
| 45 | Cook Islands | 13,967 | 9,367 | 7,918 | -43% |
| 46 | Wallis and Futuna Islands | 11,320 | 10,177 | 6,915 | -39% |
| 47 | Montserrat | 4,405 | 3,705 | 2,792 | -37% |
| 48 | Saint Helena | 5,259 | 3,993 | 2,643 | -50% |
| 49 | Falkland Islands (Malvinas) | 3,470 | 3,185 | 2,254 | -35% |
| 50 | Saint Pierre and Miquelon | 5,654 | 4,288 | 2,032 | -64% |
Tap a column header to re-sort. Data: UN WPP 2024, medium variant.